As everyone provides their opinions on the Eastern Conference the overwhelming favorite is the UBER talented Nets. In addition to having 2 of top 5 players in the world (Durant, Harden) including in my opinion #1 right now, they added quality vets (Patty Mills, James Johnson, and LeMarcus Aldridge) to go with solid role players (Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, and Bruce Brown). They appear to have just the right pieces to make it through the long season with a high playoff seed and the superior talent to make the plays needed in a long playoff run. This seems so simple why are we debating. Well 50 years of basketball tells me the team with the most talent doesn’t always win particularly when they have divisive forces with the team: the Kyrie factor.
So at present Kyrie will not be able to play half the season, cannot attend practice or shoot-arounds with team in NY area, may not be able to attend games in California, and although he can play in Toronto if he leaves hotel room he risks punishment of 6 months in jail. If I am Nets GM I don’t trust his judgment on that one so he is staying at home. Let’s ignore the reason he is missing and just accept this is a challenging team situation to manage. On the optimistic side maybe in the second half of season situation changes and these rules evolve so it is not an issue. This is extremely optimistic. There is one more very important factor to consider here. Kyrie is eligible for the 4 year extension valued at north of $180 million. If he does not get this and Durant (already signed) and Harden (expected to sign in next 2 weeks) does anyone really think he is going to play his tail off and be a good citizen for a new contract. That is not happening. His past behavior tells us he will be at best a non interested party and at worst will create challenging team dynamics. His representation already dropped not so subtle hints that a trade is off the table as he will not report to the new team. All of this translates to one messy situation and I think will stymie the Nets title hopes.
Other Favorites (Bucks, Sixers)
Sixers: I have some concerns with the other favorites. The Sixers second best player has no desire ever to play for them again, their best player will probably play between 55-65 games consistent with past few years, and their depth is the weakest of all east playoff teams. Barring the Simmons trade value taking an upswing leading to Beal or Dame joining the 76ers it appears a step back is more likely. The lack of depth and Embiid availability seems to point to a #4 or #5 seed and early exit from the playoffs. It may also lead to Doc moving on after the season as Morey probably wants his own guy.
Bucks: This is a tougher one for me. I love the Bucks roster. It has depth, toughness, some youth to spark them in mid-season games, great front office that will make mid-season additions, and of course ultra competitor in Giannis. What is not to like. Repeating is not easy. Breaks inevitably go the wrong way: injuries, Kevin Durant’s foot 2 inches further back, shorter off-season and even shorter in pandemic, Chris Paul not having a nagging injury (OK that happens every playoff season but you get the point). Mustering everything 2 years in a row without superior talent compared to rest of league (Warriors, LeBron’s Heat, Bad Boys, Magic Lakers) has proven to be an almost impossible task. All those teams had superior talent to the rest of the league and still barely survived to go back to back. People forget some great teams on runs like the 80’s Celtics and 2000’s Spurs did not win back to back. Even the Heat don’t win back to back if Pop doesn’t have brain lock and overthink the last possession leading to Ray Allen’s 3 with Duncan on the bench, Isiah’s ankle injury enabled Riley’s lakers famous repeat. It just seems so hard to get the right everything to fall into place.
Sleeper Contenders (Celtics, Hawks, Heat, Hornets, Knicks, Pacers, Raptors)
So who does that leave. I think that Raptors will bounce back but Masai is smart enough to play the long game and not play all of his cards this year. Hornets are making the right moves but still a player or two away from a big run. Love what the Knicks did last year; however, Thibs generally has a half-life with teams because of the extreme focus and discipline his team requires. That combined with a career year of Randle, Rose getting older, and defensive deficiencies of Kemba and Fornier I see that team taking a step back. Hopefully I am not a year too early with that prediction. I am very curious to see what Carlisle does with the Pacers. A strong assembly of talent that sometimes didn’t seem to work together. Sabonis is the real deal but is he capable of being best player on a 1, 2, or 3 seed? Just not sure I see that yet of course we said that about Joker 2 years ago so who knows.
Heat: they seem to have all the pieces to win the East and proved it by winning it 2 years ago when literally everything fell right. Not sure that exact formula can work again. Jimmy Butler is a tremendous competitor but when you name the top players in the NBA how far do you go before you get to Jimmy? Certainly the lowest of any contending team, lower also than some non-contending teams, and of the championship level clubs we can name 2-3 players. Unless this is the 2004 Pistons, history tells us you don’t win NBA titles with this formula. They do have a tremendous group of superior role players Robinson, Herro, Morris, and Tucker) and all everything worker in Bam but just can’t see them putting it together for a play-off run. Team unity is important but elite talent is just not there. I apologize for writing this also as the Miami Mafia will now have me on a list.
Celtics: After a very disappointing system I give tremendous credit to the retooling job particularly at the GM role. Danny Ainge reputation that he needed to win at love every trade deal eventually cost him. He never seemed to get the concept of you can trade value for value and both sides can win a deal. With that being said look at what Stevens has done with the roster. To complement their 2 all-stars they are now extremely athletic (Richardson, Neesmith, Langford, Juancho, Time lord), veteran leadership (Horeford, Smart), bench scoring (Schroeder, Pritchard, Kantor). Last year they had many line-ups that just didn’t work. They struggled to score consistently and defensive rotations seem to end with Kemba defending a post player. Tatum is proving to be super super star and Jalen Brown is not far off. On paper all the pieces look to be in place. Consistent outside shooting I think is going to be the key. I am looking forward to seeing what this team does.
Hawks: I think we saw the start of something last year. Trae proved last year he is elite level player capable of leading a team on deep playoff runs. They have tremendous 3 point shooting (Young, Bogdan, Danilo, Huerter), rim runner and rebounders (Collins, Capela), wing athletes to defend and finish (Reddish, Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Wright), and the buckets getting Lou Will off the bench. Even if he is in his late 40’s (ok late 30’s) he still can come off the bench and put up a 20 spot. The play-off run was not a fluke. They have elite level players and pieces that came together under Nate McMillan. The only question is do they have that toughness to get them over the top. A Crowder/Tucker/Iggy type is probably the last piece to add through trade or buy-out market and then look out. The Hawks are my sleeper team to make the NBA finals.
Hoops With Holly 