The NBA’s western conference has been dominant and deep for the last 25 years and this year appears to be no different. The Lakers reloaded, Jazz had the best record last year and return everyone, Steph appears to be in MVP form and Clay back in February, Clippers made west finals without Kawhi and expect him before the end of the season. All of that and I didn’t mention the team that made the NBA finals the Suns are young and made some good strategic decisions and the team with the returning MVP (Joker) with the Nuggets. This has all the makings of a dogfight with the top 4-6 teams probably within 3-5 games of each other.
I don’t know if I recall a season where mid-late season injury rehabs will have a bigger impact. When Clay comes back how long before he becomes Clay again. It sounds like we will see Kawhi again before end of regular season and the Nuggets would like to see Jamal. All of those variables make this prediction thing almost impossible. The potential (one might say inevitable)impact trades of Ben Simmons, Dame, and Kyrie might have on each team’s structure the basketball pundits might pick names out of a hat versus using sound analysis.
Upper Tier – (Lakers/Suns/Jazz)
On paper at least it appears the roster construction places these teams in the upper tier if we go with the assumption the Lakers 0-6 preseason and looked bad while doing it can be ignored. The Jazz was the #1 seed last year and still not sure how they blew double digit leads to the Clippers in back to back playoff games without Kawhi playing. With that being said, they return all key players and continuity is important, they have the best ball movement and are probably the best shooting team west of the Mississippi. The two big questions are is Donovan the best player on a championship team and can Coach Snyder find a way in the playoffs to ensure Gobert is a defensive weapon and not a pick roll toy for Lebron/Paul/Luka etc.
For the Lakers I am banking on Lebron bringing the team together, Davis being healthy (that might be a dream), and father time stays away for one year from some of those key vets (Carmelo, Ellington, Dwight). Add what I wrote previously that Russ can carry them for 15-20 games during the regular season. And is this the year Lebron finally shows his age doubt it. If Davis is healthy everything else will probably fall into place.
I love the configuration of the Suns right now. Young stars getting better in Booker, Ayton, and Bridges. Young role players to give energy and they usually stay healthy (the Cam’s Johnson and Payne, Shamet), and the veteran leadership and general toughness with Paul, Crowder, and McGee. I just worry is Paul capable of stringing together a healthy playoff run at 37 when he couldn’t at 31, 32, 33, 34, etc.
The if we have all weapons look out group (Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets)
The Nuggets proved they can win regular season games without Jamal Murray and banking they will do it again. Porter Jr. probably has one monster injury free year ahead of him, Joker is still at peak of powers, Gordon plays relentless on both ends, and a nice compliment of role players. There is a but. Just not sure they have the guard play to get past the tough teams when it comes to match ups in the playoffs. Mid-season moves might be interesting in addition to the Murray’s recovery.
The Clippers beat the Jazz without Kawhi somehow. They have proven veterans at every position and George can look dominant at times when it is his team. Tough guys like Morris, Jackson, Bledsoe, and Ibaka to keep guys in line. They will win 50 games and the hope for even first round playoff win is dependent on convincing Kawhi he is strong enough to play this year.
Love the Warriors. After scoring 42 in pre-season game the other night Steph is ready to go. I think we are going to see big second season jump in Wiseman. Jordan Poole looks like he could be a break out scorer this year. Draymond is still best team defender in the NBA. Watching him orchestrate the defense is like Tom Brady moving the team down the field. He thinks 2-3 steps ahead on defensive possessions. Even though he looks like he is aiming for the basket on the side court more than the main court when he shoots 3’s he is still a key ingredient to team success. If Clay is Clay by April look out. Also, guessing they will be candidate for nice trade with young assets or buy-out market. Definitely a sleeper.
We have a star but can we break through group (Mavs, Blazers, Pelicans, Grizzlies)
After watching what he did with his Olympic team I am confident Luka just needs moderate talent around him to make the NBA finals and he probably has that. Hardaway Jr. is a lot better than people give him credit for. They have some athleticism in Powell and Finney Smith, Bullock/Burke/Brunson can all score, and how can you not love Boban. The however in this case is what does Kristaps bring and have never been a fan of Jason Kidd the coach. Maybe 3rd time is a charm. The best plan for the Mavs might actually be Kristaps plays well enough that the Mavs can get involved in the Simmons, Kyrie, Beal, Dame trade talks.
I do not like the way the Blazers are configured at all. Obviously love Dame and Lilliard and Norm Powell is underrated. After that I think they have the bench leaner than a deer in hunting season. They will be about the 5th team waiting for the breakout year of McLemore, Nance Jr, and Cozy Zeller. Covington is great role player on championship team but on average team he is offensive liability. By mid-season this team might be blown up for the next configuration.
Wow are the Pelicans a mess. Zion may never be healthy but his numbers when he plays indicate he is a top 5 player in the league but how do you ever get consistency with lineups? Brandon Ingram is a tremendous scorer but not convinced he impacts winning. Very close compare to Zach Levine. Josh Hart is a tough SOB on great teams that is a difference maker. But similar to Covington on average teams he can actually be a liability playing that many minutes. I think Griffin is a solid GM but needs to do some work to resurrect this roster in the next 2 years.
How about the Grizzlies for the sleeper in the West. Ja is a pure assassin and teams take on the identify of their best player. He wants to be a top 10 player in the league, not afraid of big moments, and makes others better. Dillon Brooks plays with a boulder on his shoulder every time out. Desmond Bane is the guy about 10 teams wish they drafted last year, I think Jaren Jackson Jr is ready for breakout year, and Steven Adams will provide a steady influence. Watch these guys win 50 games this year but probably a year away from a big playoff move.
With all that being said the guy I am going with the Suns even if I I am not a fan of Chris Paul (and FYI he is not above Isiah Thomas on any all time point guard ranking chart even if they win the title). I think Booker is entering super stardom and can lead that cast out of the west if Paul can just stay kind of healthy. Based on past history I am worried the owner Sarver will screw it up.
Hoops With Holly 