Time for the way too early observations 2 weeks into the NBA season. At this point firm conclusions would only be made by alarmists whose job is to get ratings but I think it is fair to start having some views of concern or optimism.
Category 1: Off-season retooling is working: Heat, Bulls, Wizards
The Heat were out to prove bubble year finals run was no fluke and they seemed to have found their mojo. Butler was just player of the week, Bam is getting better, Herro might be out of sophomore slump, Lowry providing leadership, and Tucker doing Tucker things. The Bulls are an offensive juggernaut. DeRozan and Lavine can score in bunches at any time. Lonzo forcing the tempo and adding defense, Vucevic providing inside punch, and Caruso leading the energy on the second team. The Wizards also look very interesting. They have several players trying to prove they are not cast-offs (Dinwiddie, KCP, Kuzma, Harrell) combined with usual Beal wizardry and some good role players contributing. I am not sure how sustainable they are but think the Bulls and Heat are in for the long run.
Category 2: Better than we thought and fun to watch: Charlotte, Memphis, Cleveland, Toronto
The one theme on all of these is I find myself looking for their games or highlights. LaMelo Ball is looking like an all-star. He pushes a great tempo, sees everything including some full-court assists, and can shoot the 3. Miles Bridges next contract value is increasing by the day once he realized he needs to do more than dunk (thanks Will for that feedback). Hayward keeps the team balanced and Plumlee adds more athleticism. Speaking of players looking like an All-star Ja Morant’s game is also growing quickly. They are well coached and playing well. Cleveland got a steal with Mobley as he looks like a future max player. Mobley combined with Allen appear to block off all penetration to the paint. Two 6-1 guards in today’s NBA should not be able to work unless your front line is 6-10, 6-11, and 7-0 and block everything seems to allow the exception to the rule. And through in Markkenen trying to prove to all he is not a bust and they appear to have something. Let me finish with the Raptors. They have a GM that knows what he was doing. He was smart enough not to overpay the 36 year old point guard for the next 5 years and retool with younger athletic players around Van Fleet. They are still 1-2 years away but moving the right direction.
Category 3 – Contenders easing into the season: Lakers, Bucks, Nets, Suns
I don’t want to downplay it too much but I think all of these teams are going through a figure it out stage. Westbrook is an acquired taste and I am on record that I think it will work for the regular season. Look what happened in OKC without Durant and at the end of last year with the Wizards. Lebron also knows how to conserve energy in regular season so they will be fine. The Nets also trying to figure out how the pieces work together. Harden has to adjust to the “Harden no foul if you force contact rules”. The problem right now is the role players are role players and they need Harden to carry the burden. I think it will happen. Bucks and Suns still playing with a little hangover right now but more confident you will see both of them have like a 12-4 or 14-5 run in them shortly.
Category 4 – Time to start worrying – a lot: Celtics, Blazers, Clippers, Pels
Let’s start with the Celtics. I said in my preseason preview the team appears to be poorly constructed. Too many wing players, not enough depth inside, maybe not a pure point guard depending on your view of Smart and Schroder, and it certainly doesn’t appear Tatum and Brown are complementing each other. When one plays well the other seems to suffer. And more importantly although both are A-level NBA scorers they don’t always appear to make others better. Currently Pritchard and Nesmith are buried for some reason and just not sure what the direction is right now. Next 2-3 weeks will be interesting to see how they respond to this early season adversity.
So many times after the fact you will hear a GM say “I thought we had an issue but thought it could work itself out”. 95% of the time the GM should have made a move. Once plan A fell through on making a move to complement Dame they probably should have moved Dame and reloaded for the future. At best this team can compete for a play-in. At best.
The Clippers are also struggling out of the gate. Paul George needs to be the take charge guy but they are struggling to beat the Thunder at home. The roster is not athletic at a time when the athleticism in the league appears to be at a record high. The Bledsoe of three years ago is not walking through that door, Zubac can’t be on the floor for long stretches or he is exposed defensively in pick and roll, and I am not sure Kennard providing 15-20 points a night for a win is a reliable strategy.
Finally the Pelicans. This was supposed to be the year they finally make their move. Zion is either injury prone, not committed to his conditioning or a combination of both. When I see Zion I keep thinking Bill Walton. Will we see 1-2 elite years mixed in with injury riddled seasons until eventually he moves to championship contender and serves as the missing piece off the bench? Ingram went to the Jason Tatum school in that he is a superior scorer not really making anyone else better. That leaves them with volume shooter Devonte Graham and a bunch of role players to get wins. That is not a formula for success. They probably need to reshape this roster now. Valanciunas will have value to a contender. Same with Josh Hart. They should be thinking 2022-2023 and forget moves to make playoffs.
As for the other 15 teams so for I will borrow the quote from the great Dennis Green “they are who we thought they are”. Either good/bad or middle they are what we thought.
Hoops With Holly 