A quarter of the season is definitely enough time to make some informed opinions on what we are seeing but still enough time for teams/players to change my mind. Here are some observations:
- Suns and Warriors are by far the best 2 teams and it is not close – we could have expected the Suns after last year’s playoff run in fact this author predicted it so good to have one in the win column for me so far. They seem really hungry, off-season additions Shamet and JaVale McGee fitting in well, Paul staying healthy, Booker looking like 1st or 2nd team all-NBA, and DeAndre Ayton does not seem distracted from not getting max contract. Throw in Bridges making his case with Kawhi out that he is the best 2 way wing player in the NBA and after watching what he did to Curry this week he may get my vote. The 2021 Warriors definitely resemble the 2015 Warriors. Curry is better than ever. His added strength is helping him finish more at the rim and we need a new stat (the Curry assist). I think they get 3-4 open layups a game when 2 guys chase Curry to the 3 point line. Watching Draymond Green coordinate a defense is like watching the choreographer move pieces around for the dance scenes in West Side Story. He knows where everyone should be, where the offense is going, and somehow can still battle the other teams best player. Jordan Poole has taken the next step, Wiggins looks for the first time like a max-player as a 20 point a game scorer and a 2-way player, GP 3 has upside 29 teams missed on when he was cut in pre-season, and the role players seem to provide pure energy. Clay coming back and the inevitable Wiseman trade (sorry or his contributions) will only add to this group. They are a legit contender.
2. The 76ers need to do something – the problem with this situation is Darryl Morey is playing checkers while Rich Paul (Ben Simmons representation) is playing chess. The 76ers do not have leverage. Even if most of the general public and 76ers fan base thinks he should honor the contract, his team has represented Ben to have some mental health issues, he obviously does not want to be there, the fans do not want him there, and Embiid does not want him there. That seems like an unworkable situation to me. So why is Morey doubling down and using the strategy “we don’t mind if it gets uncomfortable”. It is way past uncomfortable and it has not worked. The only good news is they have survived so far even with out Embid for 9 games. Maxey appears to be legit scorer. Now go make the move and see what you can get.
3. DeJounte Murray is what 76ers need – I had the pleasure to watch him against the Celtics the other night. His closest compare is Jrue Holiday. Solid 2 way player that can finish at the rim and in the paint. We know how that turned out for the Bucks. The Spurs need to retool and I think the 76ers should actually target Murray. I really don’t think this is a consolation prize. Package Murray, Lonnie Walker, and first round pick for Simmons. Who says no? Sixers get the point guard they need with a starting five of Murray, Curry, Green, Harris, Embid. Bench still has Tybulle, Walker, Drummond. I think they can make a run with that group.
4. Lakers – still figuring it out – I would be lying if I wasn’t concerned but I can’t bet against Lebron even after 19 years. He still appears to have it. Westbrook has shown flashes of excellence and think he has another gear yet, Carmelo is still knocking down shots, and I think the injuries have hurt them. I think they will continue to develop retool during the season to figure out lineups. I am a little worried about Davis. Something seems off. but give them another 20 games and then we will talk.
5. Celtics – are they a 500 team with 2 of top 25 players in the game – seems hard to believe but it might be true. Your record is who you are and for the last 3 years with a brief bubble explosion they are playing 500 basketball. As you have read me before I love Tatum and Brown but they don’t seem to make other guys better. On paper their assists numbers are down and it looks worse watching the games. They are both capable of impressive individual scoring runs which makes me jump out of my chair. Unfortunately it does not translate to wins. The ESPN article by Tim Bontemps pretty much said the same thing. We have to remember Tatum copies his game after Kobe. Kobe was very determined to win his way and Tatum prays at that same church. Also, after the article came out before the Nets game Friday night every Celtics fan knew that game was going to be a blowout. Tatum is sensitive and was going to prove it could work that way and we know the result (Celtics trailing by 30 mid-way in 3rd quarter). Tatum finished the game with a -33 plus mins on 4-16 shooting with 5 turnovers. Timelord is a difference maker when healthy but he is never healthy. For everyone down on Smart, the Celtics are Top 5 in the league in offensive efficiency with him on the floor. I don’t think he is the problem. If Timelord stays healthy and coach figures out rotation they could prove us wrong.
6. Struggling franchises starting to turn the corner (Cavs, Wolves, Wizards) – in the NBA when you are at the bottom it is hard to turn around. Generally you need to get the ping pong ball in the right year, get lucky with some other picks, and have the discipline to accept some form of tanking for a few years then the smarts to know when to put the cards back on the table. Most recently only the 76ers and Hawks have done this successfully. Almost overnight the Cavs become a team with young talent that has long-term potential. Jarred Allen’s growth should make the Nets front office shake their heads daily that they let him get away. Mobley looks to be future all-star, Garland is shining moving to his staring role with Sexton out for the year. For the T-wolves, new ownership is on the way, Towns is putting up usual numbers, Russell is almost unstoppable in pick and role and Edwards is on his way to stardom. Throw in some solid role players and they are at 500. The Wizards benefit from one of the best trades in recent history to give 3 players out to prove something complementing Beal. I think it is sustainable and they make the playoffs.
7. West 4-10 is going to be a dogfight – after the separation of Suns, Warriors, and Jazz, 1.5 games separates the next 7 and I think it will stay like that all year unless the Lakers can break into top half. Most of the teams have a same formula, all-star player trying to lead a cast which in many cases a clear #2 isn’t present right now (see Mavs, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Clippers) or the #2 might not be good enough (Blazers, Wolves). Chemistry, Covid outbreaks, injuries, and player development will be separating factors as the season unfolds.
8. Who is the best in the East – your guess is as good as mine. My money is still on the Bucks once they get healthy. Heat look great on some nights then get clubbed to the Nuggets who had the Joker, Gordon, and a G-league roster. Nets looked better until the Suns rolled them and probably have another level when Harden figures out how to play with the Harden rules. But let’s talk about the Bulls. Why not them. Two superior offensive players in DeRozan and Lavine, inside scoring, and of course Caruso off the bench. They are fun to watch.
It is awesome that we are 20 games in and we have almost no idea what the rest of the season holds. Hang on.
Hoops With Holly 