As we get ready to start the last 3rd of the NBA season I cannot remember another season with this much doubt as to who can win the NBA East. Most years before the season starts we can identify 2-3 teams and if we are lucky one other team will break through. With 25 games to go it usually settles back to 2-3 teams again. Walking through each team’s questions, things that need to go right, and margin of error is absolutely fascinating. I believe 8 teams have a legitimate path to the NBA finals. Yes 8. The two hottest teams are essentially sitting 7th and 8th (Celtics and Toronto), The first place team got wiped out in the first round last year (Heat), and the teams with the most talent on paper (76ers, Nets) are trying to integrate new players in the rotation before the end of the year.
Toronto Raptors
When you have one of the best GM’s in the business we shouldn’t be surprised the Raptors have rebuilt on the fly and are the hottest team in the East. Van Fleet is legit all star and fierce in crunch time, Siakim is averaging 22, 9, and 5 and has rebounded to look like he does deserve that contract, Trent.Jr. averaging 18 and shooting 40% from 3, Barnes looks like they have another premium draft pick that others didn’t see, and Nurse is a top 5 coach. Throw in a solid bench and home court advantage in two scenarios. No fans allowed and players segregated in hotels or the True North unleashed after 2 years in hibernation for playoff games. So I get it on paper the other teams have more talent so try this. They end up with 8th seed from play in and get the unproven built for regular season Heat in first round. Then second round get winner of Bulls/Cavs both unproven playoff teams with current roster. Then if they get by them, they get the winner of the Cage Match (76ers, Celtics, Nets, Bucks). After 2 7 game wars with those rosters it would not be far fetched to say a young Raptors roster would be in great shape to battle those veteran teams. Not saying it will happen but definitely a chance.
Boston Celtics
Wow have things changed in the past month. Marcus Smart and Rob Williams look like and have stats to prove that they are first team All-NBA defense. When they move the ball Tatum and Brown end of getting the ball with the defense moving and they absolutely slice it with surgical percision. The coach looks like he made it past initial learning curve, Derrick White absolute perfect 6th man for the group, Grant Williams looking like Ray Allen on corner 3’s, and of course the return of Theis. I think and the stats prove they are the best defensive team in basketball. They can switch almost everything, I already mentioned Smart and Time Lord but Brown and Tatum two of the best wing defenders in basketball, and all the bigs Horeford, Theis, Williams can cover guards respectively on switches. Similar to the Raptors, they will need the right path but winning 3 rounds is not out of the question with this group.
Chicago Bulls
How is it possible we are essentially ignoring the #2 seed in the East led by an MVP candidate breaking Jordan records (Derozan), an NBA All-star in Levine that can score at all 3 levels from anyone, solid guard play from Ball, Vucevic quietly putting up 18 and 12 a night and athletic finishers coming off the bench in Caruso and White. They will be fighting the narrative of first time in playoffs together without experience why should we pick them. Great question. I don’t know what to think either. I can’t ignore the talent and performance and the path is there for them to do it.
Cleveland Cavs
As good as the Bulls story is, the Cavs is even better. When good teams rise many times it is not gradual but a steep rise (see Durant/Westbrook Thunder, Curry/Thompson Warriors) and we are seeing that with the Cavs. In one year they draft uber talented Mobley, Garland steps out of Sexton’s shadow and appears unguardable at times, sign Jarret Allen, and Kevin Love (a guy they could not give away the past 2 years) accepted his role as super 6th man and is playing his best basketball in 5 years. Then love GM’s evaluation of where they are at and picks up Lavert at the trade deadline. Just love how it has come together. So you think they have no path to win. They have 3 7 footers on the front line that make it impossible to drive consistently. When they are playing well it not only cuts off the slashing teams (i.e. Celtics, Bulls, Bucks), but also prevents the drive and kick game (Heat, Raptors) and of course multiple bigs to throw at 76ers and Embiid. in their first year together it would be surprising but the path is there.
Miami Heat
After I already discussed what worries me about them (that they are built for the regular season) there is plenty of reasons to like them. We can start with they are the #1 seed, they were in the Bubble finals just 2 years ago, basic core is still are there (Butler, Bam, Herro, Robinson), a Top 5 coach, and the tough culture to deal with challenging situations. They added playoff savy fireball Kyle Lowry, have the usual I didn’t think he could play in the NBA yet for the Heat he averages 10 a game players (Martin, Strus, Vincent), and Jimmy Butler has a playoff level that usually gets them over the top. Again the path is there.
Milwaukee Bucks
It is fascinating that the returning NBA champs are so undervalued and underappreciated. There is no asterisk with last year’s title, the core from the team is all there, a two time MVP is playing in top form, the record is solid, and yet the buzz for them going back to back is not there and not sure why. Maybe it is they play in Milwaukee, have a blue collar type of team without a second star and maybe just so many other good things to talk about. in addition to the core players in tact and playing well (Middleton, Holiday, Portis) the draft day pick of Serge on brand might be the most undervalued draft day move. 6 more fouls to guard Embiid, another pick and roll switch defender with length to match up against Bam, Durant, Tatum, etc. Really good pick up. Worry about guard play losing Donte but they won without him last year so I guess by default they can do it again.
76ers
This is where is gets really interesting. Embiid playing at MVP level (even though I think the Joker is playing at a higher level and not appreciated for it), solid wing defenders Green/Thybulle, offensive presence of Harris who is not afraid to take and make big shots, and Maxey playing so well he became an untouchable in trying to get a former MVP. If Harden can be even 80% Harden that should be a missing piece to get them to the finals. Although watching Nets games that is a bigger if then most people think. He was still having trouble adjusting to new rules drawing fouls, 3 point shoot inconsistent, does not appear to have any interest in being coached or playing a different way. However, if Harden wants to fit in, I watched Embiid win games by himself this year and having Harden as another option makes them a candidate to win it all. Is this the year Doc can push all the right buttons to get a title. If you think no remember we were saying no last year regarding Coach Bud and we know how that turned out.
New Jersey Nets
For the 76ers we just had one if to make things work and that is Harden. For the Nets there is like 11 but if all come through they could steam roll to the finals:
- Durant comes back healthy
- New York rescinds vaccine mandate
- Joe Harris enlists Ronnie Lott type of trainers (told them to just cut tip of finger off) to get back and play
- Griffin and Aldridge are hypnotized to think they are 25 and not 35
- Steve Nash worked through rookie coach issues in last year’s playoffs and remembers Durant probably should not average Wilt Chamberlin 48.5 minutes a game in the playoffs
- Simmons after not playing for a year is solid contributor on both ends
- Kyrie can play through any injury he gets
- Kyrie wants to play team ball
- Kyrie recognizes Curry and Mills should get open looks
- Kyrie let’s Simmons create versus just standing near half court line
- Kyrie plays some defense
- Kyrie doesn’t do wildcat strike in conference finals game 5 asking for the extension or he is done for playoffs.
Ok 12. Yes it is that simple. Lots of things have to come together and half involve Kyrie. After seeing him personally implode a championship caliber Celtics team, cost the Cavs another shot at a title, it is going to be interesting to see if he changes anything. If he is willing even to do a couple of the items noted above and Durant is Durant it will be awesome to see and the NBA finals is within reach. Based on past history, not sure how capable he will be of accepting not having the ball a lot and the defense part. He wants to win but has to be his way. It is also going to be a challenge to build any form of continuity with the various injuries and issues. They could go all the way but I could also see a first round match-up ending with a rout at the hands of the Heat or Bucks. Seed is going to be critical.
The cases for all 8 teams are very compelling and I see paths and holes in all of them. Can’t way to see how this thing plays out.
Hoops With Holly 