For the first stretch in about 25-30 years the general conclusion is the top teams in the East are probably better than the top teams in the West. Many factors contribute to this including major health injuries in the west (Murray, Kawahi, AD), finally better drafting, and the consensus top players being in the East (Giannis, Durant, Embiid, Tatum). What is interesting this year is for the top teams to reach their true potential will require several nominations for Comeback player of the year (Harden, Love) , a fitness focus by several players (Harden, Lowery), and a basketball focus for most of the Nets team. Actually just Kyrie and Simmons but it seems like most. Let’s dive in.
Cream of the Crop – Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are hands down the best team in the league entering the season. I will go one step further and say the difference between them and the second best team is similar to the 2017-2018 Warriors and the next best team. Why do I go there? They have the clear best player in basketball who seems to be on a mission to get better, make his teammates better, and to be the best person he can be. I admit the last part has me like him even more. No narcissist comments, shows empathy in situations, no crazy webcast, no conspiracy theories, teammates love him. In general no drama. Start thinking about the top 15-20 players in the game and who else can you make that case for. I did. Here is the remaining people in the top 20 that fit that definition: Steph, Joker, Tatum. 3 of 20. Pretty amazing. I challenge others to think about it.
Not to mention the rest of the supporting cast. Middleton and Holiday are flat out professional two way players and hard not to like. Lopez is healthy again. Portis and Connaughton is a guy every team wants. A GM that will make sure they fill in those role player slots and the added rest of being eliminated a month earlier last year and look for them raise the trophy next year.
Next level of challengers: Celtics, Sixers
I really do think Celts and Sixers have separated from the next group. Start with the 76ers, Fact 1 Embiid wants and will play for an MVP. Fact 2, Harden appears in shape and motivated to avoid late night snacks and adult clubs this year. I will settle for the former. Fact 3, the pick-ups of legit tough guys Tucker, House, Melton, Harrell all look good. With all of that I think the rise of Maxey is really the best indicator of where they are going this year. If he is there 2nd best player they will challenge the Bucks and he very well might be. Still worry they have enough playoff offense to win a series against Celtics or Bucks but we will see. Also fear Doc falls into playoff nerves of years past and starts blaming everyone but himself as games move on. His teams don’t seem to play with the appropriate level of focus and energy in big games.
The Celtics were having a great off-season through August 31st before the deluge like a Hurricane landed in Southie. Galinari out for year, Rob Williams until January, and Udoka forget basic rules of accountability that he insisted from his players last year. Put that aside and the Celtics still have the potential for the best overall defensive team in the NBA. To put in context, Jaylen Brown is the Celtics fifth best defender in the starting lineup. He would be the best defender on several contending teams Dallas, Denver, Chicago, Memphis, and the Lakers (Okay I stretched defender on that one). Smart is defending DPOY, Horford guards 2-5’s. Timelord erases everything and Tatum is 6-10 and glides around on defense making plays. White, Grant Williams, and Brogdan fit into that model perfect. I think they have answered the depth question even with the injuries. I think they are the second best team in the NBA but think the Bucks are a tough match-up. I think an Eastern Conference Final with Bucks/Celtics would be amazing.
Knocking on the door: Heat, Cavs, Nets
Talking about polar opposites, Heat contenders the past few years but some core guys aging a little bit. The Cavs can’t get into nightclubs without Kevin Love’s ID but both teams seem about the same level. Jimmy Butler almost single handedly got the Heat to the NBA finals last year and still in prime years. As far the rest of the support cast it is solid but with questions. Is Lowry going to be Toronto Lowry or is he going to struggle to stay healthy, away from the buffet table, and lead the league in fake flops. Bam’s game is solid but he goes into Witness Protection at key moments, Duncan Robinson was everyone’s favorite I lit him up in a game when I played guy and look how good he is versus the guy who could not get on the floor last year. Herro looks like he is more interested in being a star than putting the work in to be a star. Loss of Tucker is big. Yet will all of that and a great coach probably still win 50 games and will be tough out in the playoffs.
How can you not like the Cavs. Two uber exciting back-court players in Mitchell and Sexon to light up the scoreboard. Defense is not their best asset but they have the ideal situation of playing with a frontline that includes Mobley and Allen. Solid depth and I also see a strong season. I think they are one year of experience away to look out.
Boy do I struggle where to group the Nets. Is Kyrie playing with urgency of a long-term monster deal. Is Ben Simmons going to be productive with this group? Do the role players Harris, Mills, Curry, Claxton, Morris best compliment Durant as best player? Are they athletic and versatile enough to make key defensive stops? On paper the pieces seem like they can win it all. I am a big believer in intangibles that guys like Smart, Holiday, Tucker, Kevin Love, Butler bring to the mix and I don’t see that on this roster.
Will at least make the play in: Raptors/Hawks/Bulls/Knicks
The Raptors are another fun team to watch. Van Vleet as a leader is as gritty as anyone and always makes big shots. Siakim remembered he is a Top 25 player. Apparently Scottie Barnes is a Top 20 player since Toronto would not even consider throwing him in for Durant. A top 5 coach, solid guys that just put the ball in the basket Anunoby and Trent Jr. We can talk about defense a lot but the score does determine the winner and Toronto has guys that can score.
I absolutely love Dejounte Murray. He is a guy you can win a title with as one of 2-3 best players. I feel the same about Trae Young. However, I still feel like the pieces don’t fit for a top 4 team in the East. Collins, Capela, Bogdan, DeAndre are all guys you love to have but just don’t see enough defensive or offensive firepower.
If the Bulls were healthy I could see another year like last year but definitely worried about the Ball injury. He made that team go last year. DeRozan had an incredible year but not sure that can happen again as he ages. Seems like a 44 win team to me.
I have no clue what the Knicks will be. I can see Tibs willing them to a 46 win season and can also see the need for a reset when they win 33 games. Brunson was a great pick up and I think will help them a lot.
Hoping for play in but secretly hoping for lottery shot at French wonder: Charlotte, Detroit, Washington, Orlando
Charlotte and Washington probably each feel like they have some cornerstones (Beal, Ball) and probably really want to see the play in to keep this thing moving. The Pistons have more talent than both of them but probably would not mind one more high draft pick to add to the mix. I think Cade Cunningham might be an all-star this year he is so good. Orlando is really hoping for growth and to continue lottery success.
Hoops With Holly 