People seem to forget that this will be the first season in 3 years completed on the traditional calendar: start games in October, X-mas day formal launch, January grind, Feb all star break, April play-offs, June finals. No doubt the unusual schedule created some schedule anomalies that helped some teams and injuries that decimated others. Not minor injuries but major injuries to impact players Kawhi, Murray, and Anthony Davis. Oh wait AD was only technically injured for part of the season it just felt like the entire season. Then throw in other stars missing good chunks like LeBron, Dame, and Paul George the western conference landscape was altered and enabled the rise of Memphis and Minnesota. Now that most teams appear healthy and getting better how does the season shape up.
Favorites: Golden State, Denver, and Memphis
I really think these teams are just a little ahead of everyone else. The defending champs have rising young players (Poole, Wiseman, Moody, Kuminga) to help them make it through the long regular season. tough vets like Looney JaMychael Green, prove it players like DiVincenzo and Iggy to keep things steady. A top 5 defensive wing in Wiggins and oh and did I mention Steph playing at top 5 player level, Klay for a full year, and Draymond still one of best team defenders in basketball no matter how much he annoys us. Probably will add a vet at trade deadline or buyout time and be ready to go. I think the Draymond/Poole drama would be a problem for most teams yet somehow I think they will manage it.
Love the Nuggets this year. 2 time returning MVP who is a one-man offensive creator. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter back, Aaron Gordon playing his role, and love the addition of KCP and Bruce Brown. Anyone else giddy out Jokic having a legit cutter like Brown and KCP to find on the perimeter? I know I sure as hell am. Through in Bones Hyland’s energy and a great coach in Malone and I think they could end up with Number 1 seed.
Ever notice we love those teams that take after the personality of their best player and are successful? Memphis plays with pure energy, excitement, they are afraid of no one and I feel like they are in attack mode the entire game just like Ja. I think they are going to continue to get better. Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, and Brandon Clarke our guys that flat out look like you want to play ball with. Play hard, play D, going 100 MPH all game. Sign me up for run with them. It also looks like Zaire Williams is ready to join that group soon. Great resign of Tyus Jones and I haven’t even mentioned their second best player Jaren Jackson Jr. Seems like a #2 or #3 seed to me with the Warriors in the other spot.
A strong second group: Clippers, Mavs, Wolves, Suns, Pelicans
I can think through scenarios that each of these teams can be as high as 2 seed but an injury or two and these teams are so close they end up in the play-in. If Clippers are healthy the entire year they have an entire package to win the title. Superstars up top, great depth, bench scoring, can play different styles, and top 5 coach. Looking forward to seeing this thing play out. For the Mavs Luka looks in great shape and is feeling is oats after Eurobasketball tourney, last year’s playoffs, and pretty sure he will play full regular season looking for an MVP. The loss of Brunson is big but don’t underestimate how could Hardaway Junior is who was out for the entire playoff run.
The Wolves and Pelicans both appear to be ready for a big jump. Wolves went all in with Gobert trade. Edwards might crack the Top 20 players list this year if he hasn’t already. I can easily see a motivated team getting to 50 wins. The million dollar question. Can Zion play 60 games. Forget 70, 75, or 80. Give me 60. If he can I watched Brandon Ingram at the end of last year and he is basically unstoppable offensively. Veteran presence of CJ and I see 49-50 wins with healthy Zion. Without probably only 500 team.
So why am I down on Phoenix who was in the final 2 years ago and had best record in the NBA last season before playoff upset? A little more than a feeling. Noise like the Sarver thing has impact on teams. It generally takes away stability of the franchise for a short period. The many other items include royally screwing up the Ayton contract (which he seems very happy to be there based on his interviews), apparently there is not a place for one of their best defenders (Crowder), Paul has not played full season recently and don’t expect it this year and he is 38 by the way, and just not comfortable with their bench. Will still be solid but I think it is time to retool a little bit.
Hope for play-in: Lakers, Kings, Blazers
It is mandatory everyone writes 2000 words on the Lakers but I will spend less than 100. Even if AD stays healthy, LeBron has the energy to carry the team and play defense consistently, and Westbrook fits in better I still don’t see the pieces to compete with the top teams in the West. The other pieces are just not good enough. And by the way the stars are not good enough. Take the top 2 of each team above and stop when you take the Lakers top 2 over them. Curry/Klay, Jokic/Murray, Ja/Jackson, George/Kawhi, Luka/anyone, Ingram/Zion, Booker/Bridges. It is not until the last one that I think about for this year. 3 years ago i would have a different answer but not this year. See the Lakers in the play-in without a major move.
For the Blazers i see Dame coming out in F-U Dame mood that will win games. Anfernee Simons made a great jump last year and I think they can score with the best of them. However defensively they look more like the old Nuggets teams. Just don’t know how they get stops against good teams. I think the Kings are going to be feisty and fighting for that last play-in spot
Can we get the big French guy in the lottery group: Spurs, Thunder, Rockets, Jazz.
This is actually the largest group of teams not trying to win the west for awhile. Any of these teams getting to 30 wins would be a surprise. Rockets are probably the farthest along but still without a lot of depth. I am not sure but the other 3 teams might hold every draft pick for the next 5 years and guessing Jazz will add more when they sell off Conley, Rockets when they trade Gordon, and Thunder when they trade SGA.
After all that can we see an upset in the playoffs? Depends on how you define upset. i don’t think Golden State will have the number 1 seed but think they will come out of the west. Definitely see one more run before the Salary Cap gets them. This is the last year with this group. They can probably keep only 1 of Green, Wiggins, or Klay after this year without forking over literally 450 million in pay plus cap penalty. Not sure they will win but see them representing the West.
Hoops With Holly 