OK about 1/3 of the season is behind us and we are starting to get a clearer picture on what these teams look like. Some things expected Kyrie drama, Jokic and Luka doing Jokic and Luka things, AD hurt again. And some things not expected Jazz around 500 and not playing for Webmanyama lottery balls, expected contenders taking a step back (Heat, Suns, Warriors), and the Kings might break the longest streak of not making the playoffs.
Celtics and Bucks are still the best teams but gap is closing
They both have the best records and have the highest upside because of defensive prowess and versatility, 3 point shooters to surround the stars, and stars that can take over a game or series. Middleton is not himself yet and Bucks still have second best record. Tatum could get the nod as most improved in the superstar category, Giannis seems hell bent on getting another MVP award, Brown is a top 20 player in the game, and tough hard nose role players like Smart/Horford/Wiliams squared/White/Brogan for Celts and Holiday/Lopez/Allen/Portis Jr./Connaughton for the Bucks. Before the trade deadline they are deepest rosters in the league. Please don’t deprive us of a 6-7 game Eastern Conference Finals.
Are the 76ers and Nets NBA title contenders
So the last 3 weeks has seen both teams get their groove and play very well. Durant and Embiid reminding us they are Top 7 players in the NBA, Harden playing very effective, Kyrie actually playing, and role players for both teams stepping up. But let’s play this out. Is either team going to get enough games from key players to break into 1 or 2 seed? How confident are you that Kyrie is not going to take off a few weeks in Jan/Feb then a couple of more weeks in March/April? Harden and Embiid going to play 90% of games rest of way? Based on past history the answer to all of those questions is no. Then let’s get to the playoffs, do we think either team can get enough stops against Celtics and Bucks? Or better yet, is either team capable of generating enough offense against those top 2 defenses? And last one do you trust Harden, Doc Rivers, Simmons, Nets supporting cast et all (Harris, Claxton, etc.) to make the right play and shots in a key playoff series. Correct. Neither do I.
The West Logjam but I think Nuggets and Memphis will emerge
Is it possible the back to back MVP actually looks better this year by playing with actual talent around him? The answer is yes. Murray is healthy even if not pre-injury Murray yet, Porter Jr. at least occasionally in the lineup, Bruce Brown is making the difference we all thought he would scoring on cuts and making all the right plays. As to the Grizzlies who plays with more confidence than they do. I am very sure they think they are the best team in NBA and might think they are the best team in the past 10 years. They play with a ton of energy that only occasionally gets in the way of common sense basketball. Ja continuing to make jaw dropping plays while they seem to have the right dudes to work around him. A trade or buyout acquisition could make a big difference to give them another adult in the room with decision making.
The Pelicans are the 3rd best team in the West
Other than Memphis, the Pelicans might be the most enjoyable team to watch. They have 2 players in Zion and Alvarado for different reasons that 3x a game make you sit up and get excited about what just happened or what might happen. For Zion that is easy to understand why but Alvarado shows what you can accomplish by playing with enthusiasm on the basketball court. Not many guys bring his energy every minute of every game. For those that forgot Ingram was the best player in the series in their playoff loss and I think this team could be a very tough out.
Which GM’s should move onto next year (Bulls, Raptors, Heat, Suns. Lakers, Hawks)
Not sure we have had a list this big of teams who thought they could win a title that are either barely in playoffs our outside of play-in tournament. In my opinion they all need to reload in my opinion. GM’s need to look in the mirror and say is this team capable of comfortably winning a playoff series. That puts them with a top 8 team and second round series with a chance to make conference finals. Even if these teams are healthy can we see this year’s edition winning a playoff series? I really can’t and here is why.
Bulls – they are just constructed poorly. Lavine is not at the level of the best player on a championship contending team. His game is similar to Derozan who although is playing well we saw what happened 5 years ago when he was the best player on a team that struggled in playoffs. They should almost completely retool. Can’t trade Levine but Derozan And V would have great value. Look to get pieces that can help with a healthy Ball next year.
Raptors – they have long interchangeable parts with the exception of Van Vleet but they just don’t shoot well enough. Also with their length you would think they would be better defensively but they still seem to get in matchups that the other teams take advantage of. Really not sure what the play is here. They seem to think Barnes is a future all star so I guess look for assets for Siakim and rebuild around Barnes.
Heat – when your GM is 80 years old rebuilding is not an option so what is? Lowery is 37 with little trade value. Duncan Robinson is another contract that probably needs a #1 attached to it even though I think a new setting might jump start his game again. Jimmy Butler only wants to play about 50-55 games a year so hard to get a top 3 finish with this team. I thought Kyrie might be the option before his latest I want to play streak but that seems off the table for now. Bam is really only tradeable asset. Do they look for package and hope Jimmy, Hero, Lowery, Strus and trade assets can get over the hump? Maybe Vucevic from the Bulls as a big can turn the tide? Might be worth a try.
Hawks – Pretty clear this version is not working. They have a good coach so you can’t blame it on that. Trae not only has size limitations but appears genuinely disinterested in team defense. They are not getting consistent wing or bench play. and have been trying to trade Collins frim the day they signed him. I think they need a big reboot. Trade Collins, Bogan, and Capela for assets and reboot with Young, Murray, and AJ Griffin, Hunter, and a new set of bigs.
Suns – yes I think the window for the Suns has absolutely closed. Ayton resigned reluctantly and the Suns don’t really want him there, Crowder obviously doesn’t want to be there, Chris Paul is 37 and has been hurt every post season when his age started with a 3. If that evidence is not enough look at what happened every time they played a contender this year (Memphis, Celtics, Pelicans) I think they lost by 30 each time. Can they keep beating the Rockets, Lakers, etc. and pile up about 48 wins, probably. But days as contenders are over. They already overplayed the Crowder hand by waiting too long and decreasing his value. Trade Ayton for point guard of future and look to set up next version around Booker, Bridges, and Cam Johnson
Lakers – Saving the best for last. When evaluating a team the GM should not be able to utter the phrase “if we stay healthy we have a good team”. I honestly think AD and Lebron playing 70 games with this group would be a 48 win team. However, that happening is about the same as people in the Villages not voting for Trump. It was never going to happen. Lebron is 38 and although his A game is on full display many nights he does not play even 60 games anymore. And AD doesn’t reach 50. The rest of the team is built around them and not capably of generating the offense or stopping anyone to win consistently. Much to Lebron’s displeasure the best strategy is to wait out this year, use cap space to get a 3rd star, and hope for continued development of Reeves.
Hoops With Holly 